#WhoWillWin: Can 'Batman v Superman' draw the crowd it needs? - Philippines Box Office Forecast

Dawn of Justice

The battle is finally coming. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice arrives in Philippine theaters this Black Saturday. The superhero pic will also open in all countries in the world including China. Marketing has been strong. Product tie-in continues to increase leading up to the release date (With Petron & Smart leading of the TV ads). Can the movie accomplish the target of Warner Bros.?



My opening prediction for the superhero flick is PHP 120 million.

An example of Batman v Superman product tie-in
Photo from: Smart

First, Let's talk about Man of Steel. The Superman movie debuted to a PHP 245.8 million, a strong number for a non-sequel movie but the movie dropped hard during the following weeks and ended its run with PHP 385 million. What happened? It could be these two things. One, there was a strong competition. Week after week, blockbusters such as World War Z, Despicable Me 2, & Pacific Rim opened. It is also worth noting that the two mentioned above targets the same audience that MOS has. Two, it is likely that the word-of-mouth for the movie wasn't good. Reviews for the movie have been mixed and audiences are also divided on it. UPDATE: My fears became true, Batman v Superman received bad reviews from the critics. But sometimes, effects and hype is just enough (Gods of Egypt performed well in the country).

WB smartly placed Dawn of Justice on a March release date where its competition will be softer (namely The Huntsman: Winter's War & The Jungle Book). The problem that might occur again is its word-of-mouth. Both movies are directed by Zack Snyder which might get the original moviegoers think twice before seeing it. Local pic Hele sa Hiwagang Hapis isn't likely going to steal audiences from it.

Here are the movies that opened (and data for some holdovers) during Black Saturday in the last 4 Years:

2015 
Furious 7
Opening: PHP 91 million; Total Gross: Est. PHP 442 million
The Spongebob Movie: Sponge Out of Water
Opening: PHP 17.63 million; Total Gross: Est. PHP 44 million

2014
Transcendence
Opening: PHP 7.88 million; Total Gross: Est. PHP 23.46 million
Heaven is For Real
Opening: PHP 5.64 million; Total Gross: Est. PHP 24.16 million

2013
It Takes A Man and A Woman
Opening: PHP 60.97 million; Total Gross: Est. PHP 375 million
G.I. Joe: Retaliation
Opening: PHP 49.49 million; Total Gross: Est. PHP 187.47 million

2012
Titanic 3D
Opening: PHP 5.41 million; Total Gross: Est. PHP 23.11 million
Moron 5 and The Crying Lady
Opening: No Data; Total Gross: PHP 64.64 million

Data suggests that movies that open during the Easter weekend tend to hold very well which gives an assurance that Batman v Superman will hold after this week.

This is the first time in history that the three would be in the same movie and that is 'must-see' one for audiences.

But in the end, there is one thing that will drive the audiences watch this movie - its Batman, Superman & Wonder Woman together in the same movie. It is the movie that people have been waiting for years. That is a big factor for this movie. It may be the only factor needed for this to survive.

VERDICT: Batman + Superman + Wonder Woman = $$$. An opening north of PHP 100 million is likely and is going to have a strong hold the following week before it collapses.
FORECAST: PHP 120 million opening