MMFF 2016 Box Office Preview: 'Vince and Kath and James', 'Seklusyon' & 'Ang Babae sa Septic Tank 2' are the likely frontrunners

Vince and Kath and James 

This year, Metro Manila Film Festival has changed the game. And with this, surefire blockbuster hits such as The Super Parental Guardians, Enteng Kabisote 10, and Mano Po 7 were rejected making the box office success of this year's festival uncertain. Which movie could become the next English Only, Please? Can these eight attract the huge family audience? Let's take a look at the official eight entries of the 2016 Metro Manila Film Festival.

Vince and Kath and James (Star Cinema)

A 'rated G' romantic comedy movie from Star Cinema is the safest entry this year. Although it lacks the star power of Daniel Padilla or Nadine Lustre, rising stars Joshua Garcia, Ronnie Alonte and Julia Barretto is likely enough to attract the younger demographic. This is also based from a popular book which could pull in the original fans. And lastly, never doubt the marketing team of Star Cinema and they're clearly promoting this movie well. 

The only problem could be is on the family audiences. If they had already went to the theaters (the yearly tradition) for Parental Guardians or Enteng Kabisote, will they show up again this Christmas? And will they watch a romantic movie? 

Overall, things are looking great for this movie, A total above PHP 150 million seems likely

Seklusyon (Reality Entertainment)

Horror films are also successful in this festival. Last year's Haunted Mansion (PG), without any huge stars and has a competition, grossed north of PHP 100 million, Without competition this year, this rated R fare will automatically get the horror fans. Director Erik Matti is also known for critically acclaimed films (Tiktik, On The Job, & Honor Thy Father) which could attract the audiences who will prefer a quality movie. Ronnie Alonte & Dominique Roque could also get the younger demo (but Mr. Alonte's fans will likely prefer his other work this year). And most importantly, it is already getting good reviews from the critics. 

Social media numbers are in between low and average. For example: its Youtube trailer has barely passed 100K views but it's Facebook trailer got a better number with 1.4 million views. Director Matti's box office record is not good as well although Seklusyon will be more accessible to viewers than his recent offerings. But combining all of the factors working for it, reaching PHP 100 million wouldn't be surprising.

Ang Babae sa Septic Tank 2 (Martin Rivera Films, Quantum Films, Tuko Film Productions, Buchi Boy films, MJM Production)

With Vice Ganda and Vic Sotto out of this race, Ang Babae sa Septic Tank has the advantage as the only PG comedy in the eight contenders. Eugene Domingo remains a known comedian. Kimmy Dora: Ang Kiyemeng Prequel did fine business with a tougher competition. from two huge profiles I've mentioned above.

The only problem it will face is in its marketing. Septic Tank may not be as popular as Kimmy Dora. Also, Star Cinema distributed the first one and made it as the highest grossing independent film in the country (until beaten by That Thing Called Tadhana which is also distributed by Star Cinema). This time, it's on its own. As stated earlier, a marketing campaign from Star Cinema/ABSCBN is really strong and Ang Babae sa Septic Tank 2 is not getting huge buzz. But this movie will be fine (its trailer has around 1.5 M views, combined from its page and the MMFF page). A box office total around PHP 100 million is likely as well. A good word of mouth would be a plus points to this movie.

Die Beautiful (The IdeaFirst Company, Octobertrain Films)

Nope, this will not die in the box office. Paolo Ballesteros is known for his make-up transformations. A comedy film related to his make-up transformations could likely attract his fans and other audiences although the R13 rating will keep it away from families. Expect a likely solid performance for Die Beautiful. 

My Predictions*

1. Vince and Kath and James - 160 million

2. Ang Babae sa Septic Tank 2 - 110 million

3. Seklusyon - 100 million

4. Die Beautiful - 50 million

One interesting thing; MMFF films would likely be leggier than front-loaded this time. Without fan-driven films (My Bebe Love was front-loaded), audiences might want to check out the reviews/reactions before selecting what to watch. And this would be crucial since movie theaters will likely pull the screenings of an empty-filled movie. 

Watch out for the second part of my preview including Oro, Saving Sally, Sunday Beauty Queen & Kabisera

*my predictions are on my own

Photo Source: Star Cinema, Rappler, Screendaily