Vice Ganda and Vic Sotto in a new battlefield - B.O. Prediction for 'The Super Parental Guardians' & 'Enteng Kabisote 10'

Enteng Kabisote 10

In a (not so for me) surprising turn of events, a Vice Ganda and a Vic Sotto movie didn't made the cut for this year's Metro Manila Film Festival. It's a bold move for the said festival since these two figures usually gives the biggest box office share. And for another surprising turn of events, these two are going to be released almost a month before the festival. The question now becomes: With Christmas Audience out of reach (for now) and Disney's Moana also in play (and holdovers The Unmarried Wife and Fantastic Beasts) how will these two fare outside MMFF?


But first here are some notes: Since MMFF is a Metro Manila festival, these two films can still be shown in provincial cinemas on Christmas Day. Both movies will also open on November 30, a holiday, which could boost their opening day numbers. Also, since they're outside of MMFF now, they can release their box office numbers anytime they want (hooray!).

1. The Super Parental Guardians - PHP 400 million
For Vice Ganda? This is no problem. His last movie outside of MMFF was This Guy's Inlove with U Mare opened to PHP 23 million and legged out to PHP 250 million. That was four years ago when our cinema was still budding. Now, with Coco Martin returning as his partner and Awra and Onyok added to the mix, it's a no brainer that this will sell. This also marks the first Vice Ganda film that will not be directed by the late Wenn V. Deramas. Instead, Bb. Joyce Bernal is taking the position and based from its trailer, there is no difference seen with the style of a Vice Ganda movie which is a good thing. Trailers seems to be strong with 1.7 million views on Star Cinema's YouTube channel and 4.2 million on Star Cinema's Facebook Page (as of Nov. 28).

Another interesting thing here is that: compared to the 8 films competing every MMFF, this time the competition would only be Enteng Kabisote, Moana and holdovers Unmarried Wife and Beasts. The problem that Vice Ganda could face would be on the Millenials. He can attract the audience that watches movies like The Avengers or Star Wars. Can he attract them this time around? An opening north of PHP 40 million and a total gross of PHP 400 million seems likely. Anything above that will be not surprising at all.

2. Enteng Kabisote 10 and the Abangers - PHP 100 million
Put an Enteng Kabisote movie in the MMFF season and PHP 100 million gross is already in bank. But out of MMFF? That is a question. Enteng Kabisote is an established brand. But the problem is the last Kabisote movie was four years ago and that movie wasn't a huge hit (even though boosted by Bong Revilla and Judy Ann Santos but then again, Ang Tanging Ina is a stronger brand to crossover). My Little Bossings was boosted thanks to the hype from Ryzza Mae Dizon. A year after that, it's sequel - My Big Bossings disappointed. Last year's My Bebe Love was boosted by the Aldub Phenomenon. Can you see a pattern here?

And yes, the pattern continues today. Enteng Kabisote 10 doesn't have a buzz factor from a phenomenon nor a fresh story/crossover to get people intrigued. The trailer is selling this as your typical Kabisote movie. Also, Vic Sotto's last movie outside of MMFF was Pak! Pak! My Dr. Kwak did an okay business which cannot be a number this movie should get. Trailers seems to be a little weak on YouTube (352K views on OctoArts Channel as of Nov. 28) and I can't find the official Facebook trailer (If you can please link to me). Also, Disney's critically acclaimed Moana is opening this week which will attract some family audiences and will possibly hurt both movies.

But then again, Kabisote and Vic Sotto is a brand. The Aldub Cameo can still add some buzz. Also, Pak Pak Dr. Kwak (with Bea Alonso) opened to PHP 15 million five years ago. Another thing: Sotto's movies are typically frontloaded so the first day gross will still be big. An opening of PHP 20 million seems likely. Anything below would be a disappointment. And a final total around PHP 100 million is likely.

Some Random Notes:
1. When is peak Vice Ganda in movies? Will it be this year?
2. Which could be the date night movie between the two? The Super Parental Guardians is above Kabisote here. But will they watch this time of year?
3. Which movie could attract the older audience (60+)? Kabisote is likely the winner here
4. Can Moana really hurt these two? It seems like its targeting a different kind of audience
5. Mano Po 7 opens on December 14 and Rogue One: A Star Wars story opens on the following day which will eat up a lot of screens. Can these two survive?

Photo Source: PhilStar, PEP
November 30 Box Office Prediction

My predictions are own my own.